- Status of PV power generation in EU
According to the forecast of the European Union, in the middle of the 21st century, the photovoltaic power generation capacity will account for about 40% of the total power generation of the whole EU, so it can be said that the 21st century is the century of solar energy utilization. As long as there is sunlight, photovoltaic cells can generate electricity without geographical restrictions. With the increasing support from governments in various countries, the production type and quantity of photovoltaic cells have increased and the cost has continued to decline. At the same time, photovoltaic panels can replace building materials, which have greatly promoted the rapid development of photovoltaic power generation. In the 1980s Since then, the United States, Germany, Japan, Canada, the Netherlands and other countries have formulated medium and long-term development plans, which have greatly promoted the development of photovoltaic power generation technology and industry.
The estimated installed capacity of photovoltaic power plants in the world and China in the last 3 years and the next 5 years given by the IHS technology database. In 2012, the global installed capacity increased by about 31GW, and China’s new installed capacity was 4.1GW. It is estimated that in 2017, the global installed capacity will increase About 60GW, China’s installed capacity increased by about 10GW. Since 2013, the annual installed capacity of photovoltaics in China, Japan, the United States and India has maintained rapid growth, with an average global annual growth rate of 14%. Before 2013, China’s photovoltaic power plants were mainly large-scale photovoltaic ground-based power plants. After 2013, distributed photovoltaic power generation systems have been vigorously promoted, and the proportion of small and medium-scale distributed photovoltaic power plants will increase rapidly.
Goldman Sachs solar market report shows that in 2013, China will replace Germany as the world’s largest photovoltaic market. From 2013 to 2015, China’s solar photovoltaic installed capacity will reach 8.0GW, 9.0GW, and 10.0GW respectively. Even if it is estimated in a conservative way, calculated at 8 yuan/W, from 2013 to 2015, the total photovoltaic market in China will be 64 billion. Yuan, 72 billion yuan, 80 billion yuan, and the total market volume in three years will reach more than 200 billion yuan. The market share of photovoltaic inverters is also expected to rise. Generally speaking, the cost of photovoltaic inverters accounts for an average of 5% to 10% of the total cost of photovoltaic power generation projects. If calculated according to the proportion of inverters accounting for 7% of the entire photovoltaic market, the inverter market will reach 4.5 billion yuan, 5 billion yuan, and 5.6 billion yuan respectively from 2013 to 2015, and the total market in three years will reach more than 15 billion yuan. China’s photovoltaic industry will be opened on a large scale, and the large-scale growth of photovoltaic installed capacity will directly stimulate the further expansion of the demand for photovoltaic inverters, and the inverter market will usher in a critical period of development.
While the potential of the Chinese market is increasing sharply, the growth of the global PV market is gradually slowing down. The European market has accounted for more than 70% of total global solar installations in the past few years. But from 2013, the European market will begin to decline, and major European markets such as Germany and Italy will shrink sharply. Therefore, the global competitive landscape is evolving, the market concentration is declining, SMA’s dominance is shaken, and the Chinese and American markets are expected to breed new local inverter leaders. Inverter products have strong regional characteristics. From 2005 to 2010, the German photovoltaic industry accounted for half of the world. SMA took the opportunity to become the global inverter overlord, with a global market share of 30% to 40%. Since 2011, the growth rate of the German market has declined, and emerging markets such as China, the United States, and Japan have gradually become the protagonists of the photovoltaic market. The SMA market share fell to 23% in 2012. With the rise of photovoltaic markets in China and the United States, Sungrow and Power-One are expected to become the leading inverter companies in the two countries.
- Status of photovoltaic power generation in China
China is a country rich in solar energy resources in the world, with more than 2/3 of the country’s land area having an average annual sunshine hours of more than 2000h. Figure 1 shows that the total solar radiation in Tibet, Qinghai, Xinjiang, Gansu and Ningxia is the highest in the country, and the annual radiation exceeds 6×105J/cm2. The solar energy absorbed by the surface every year is about 17 trillion tons of standard coal energy. The prospects are very broad.
In 2006, the Renewable Energy Law of the People’s Republic of China was implemented, and GB/T19939-2005 “Technical Requirements for Grid-connected Photovoltaic System” was formulated, which indicates that China has guaranteed the rational development and utilization of renewable energy from the perspective of laws and regulations. At the same time, the National Development and Reform Commission officially issued the “China’s Medium- and Long-Term Development Plan for Renewable Energy”, proposing to make full use of hydropower, biogas, solar thermal utilization and geothermal energy and other mature and economical renewable energy sources to accelerate the promotion of The industrialization of wind power, biomass power, and solar power will gradually increase the proportion of high-quality clean renewable energy in the energy structure, and strive to make renewable energy consumption reach 16% of total energy consumption by 2020, and by 2030 It will reach 20% by year and 30% by 2050 (see Table 1.2), and clearly put forward the application focus of photovoltaic power generation in the next 15 years: give full play to the advantages of solar photovoltaic power generation system suitable for decentralized power supply, and promote the use of photovoltaic power generation systems for users in remote areas. Or build small photovoltaic power stations to solve the problem of power supply for people without electricity. Develop urban photovoltaic building integration technology, expand the utilization of urban renewable energy, and provide the necessary market scale for solar photovoltaic power generation, build several solar photovoltaic power generation demonstration power stations, and promote the rapid development of solar power generation technology in China.
In March 2009, the Ministry of Finance issued the “Implementation Opinions on Accelerating the Application of Solar Photovoltaic Buildings”. On October 26, 2012, the State Grid Corporation of China issued the “Opinions on Doing a Good Job in Distributed Power Generation Grid-connected Services (Interim)”, pointing out that on November 1 Since then, China’s distributed photovoltaic power generation projects will be able to enjoy free grid-connected services throughout the entire process, and will be able to voluntarily use it for their own use, with the remainder being connected to the Internet. The above policies have greatly stimulated the rapid development of China’s photovoltaic power generation industry, and a relatively complete photovoltaic manufacturing industry system has been formed.
The main problems at present: the production capacity of photovoltaic panels is seriously overcapacity, the market is overly dependent on external demand, and enterprises are generally difficult to operate. However, the dramatic drop in the cost of photovoltaic power generation has provided favorable conditions for expanding the Chinese market. At the beginning of 2012 and at the end of the year, the Ministry of Finance allocated 6 billion yuan and 7 billion yuan respectively to support the launch of a photovoltaic power generation demonstration project with a total scale of 5,200MW in China, which undoubtedly injected a boost to the currently sluggish photovoltaic industry.
Compared with the entire photovoltaic industry chain, the photovoltaic inverter industry is one of the few profitable industrial links. With the launch of China’s photovoltaic market, the demand for photovoltaic inverters in China has steadily increased. In recent years, the photovoltaic industry has developed rapidly, and more and more companies have invested in the industry. At present, the top mainstream companies in the inverter industry generally have a gross profit of about 30%. As more and more companies entered and competition in the industry intensified, the price of inverters in China fell faster. For example, for the average selling price of high-power grid-connected inverters, in 2010, the market price was about 1.3~1.5 yuan/W; in 2011, the market price remained at about 0.8 yuan/W; but by 2012, the price dropped to about 0.5 Yuan/W; in 2013, the average price may fall below 0.35 yuan/W, and in just 4 years, the price has dropped by as much as 3/4. The cost of photovoltaic inverters fell faster than price fluctuations, the tight supply of raw materials (such as IGBT power modules) and the firm price of other electronic components made the unit cost of inverters less compressed in 2012. In 2013, the average cost of China’s mainstream inverter products ranged from 0.25 to 0.35 yuan/W.
All in all, the solar photovoltaic power generation industry has broad prospects. With the strong support of the government, there will be a good momentum of rapid development, which is conducive to actively promoting the industrialization of new renewable energy technologies, establishing a renewable energy technology innovation system, and forming a relatively complete system. renewable energy industry system. Strengthen the research and development of system design of photovoltaic grid-connected power generation, development of key equipment and the combination of photovoltaics and buildings, and gradually improve China’s renewable energy equipment manufacturing industry chain with independent intellectual property rights.